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Will AI replace software engineers?

Software developers are "highly exposed" to generative AI according to the International Labour Organization (gradient 3 of 4 on its index): much of the work can be transformed. Exposed does not mean replaced: the ILO concludes that, for most occupations, transformation is the most likely impact. What changes most is testing and validating code; what changes least is working with clients and engineers.

ILO reference occupation · Software Developers

Highly exposed

Much of the work can be transformed by AI. The job changes clearly, without disappearing.

ILO category: Exposed, gradient 3

What AI changes in the job, task by task

The most exposed tasks are directing testing and validation (a score of 0.65 out of 1) and analysing the requirements of an application (0.61). Designing, writing and fixing the software itself sits at the threshold (0.50). Tasks built on conversation are less exposed: evaluating hardware and software interfaces with engineers (0.45) and discussing maintenance with customers (0.45).

  • Developing and directing software testing and validation procedures

    Exposed

  • Researching, analysing and evaluating requirements for software applications and operating systems

    Exposed

  • Assessing, developing, upgrading and documenting maintenance procedures for operating systems, communications environments and applications software

    Exposed

  • Directing software programming and development of documentation

    Exposed

  • Researching, designing, and developing computer software systems

    Exposed

  • Modifying existing software to correct errors, to adapt it to new hardware or to upgrade interfaces and improve performance

    Exposed

  • Consulting with engineering staff to evaluate interfaces between hardware and software

    Low

  • Consulting with customers concerning maintenance of software system

    Low

Source: ILO, Generative AI and Jobs, Working Paper 140, 2025.

Neighbouring jobs

In IT, nearly every occupation is exposed, to different degrees. Web development sits at the highest level of the index; applications programming at the same level as software development (gradient 3). Systems analysis, technical support and IT management are less exposed (gradient 2).

  • Web and Multimedia Developers

    Very highly exposed

  • Applications Programmers

    Highly exposed

  • Software Developers· this job

    Highly exposed

  • Systems Analysts

    Moderately exposed

  • Information and Communications Technology User Support Technicians

    Moderately exposed

  • Information and Communications Technology Service Managers

    Moderately exposed

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Limits

The ILO index is global and describes the tasks of the international classification, not a specific position: "developer", "software engineer" and "programmer" all fall under code 2512. Its 2025 scores were largely produced by AI models, then checked against a survey of workers and expert panels: they are estimates, not measurements. Opening counts only cover Brevy's catalogue.

Source: Gmyrek, P., Berg, J., Kamiński, K., Konopczyński, F., Ładna, A., Nafradi, B., Rosłaniec, K., Troszyński, M. Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure. ILO Working Paper 140. Geneva: International Labour Office, 2025. © ILO, CC BY 4.0. https://doi.org/10.54394/HETP0387

This page is an adaptation: categories are regrouped for the table. Notice required by the licence:

This is an adaptation of a copyrighted work of the International Labour Organization (ILO). This adaptation has not been prepared, reviewed or endorsed by the ILO and should not be considered an official ILO adaptation. The ILO disclaims all responsibility for its content and accuracy. Responsibility rests solely with the author(s) of the adaptation.

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